ABHI Brexit Update: It's Not as Easy as it Looks
Greetings One and All, and, as Fats Domino said in 1969, I’m back again. It is nearly almost good as well, what with the predictably reassuring rain in early English summertime. A big thanks to Will for sitting in last week and offering far more sober reflections on all things Brexit than you usually get from me.
Whilst I was away, I resolved to make an announcement and wanted you to be amongst the first to know. I have decided not to enter the contest to be the next leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. I know, but so many others whose main qualification appears to be the ability to breathe unprompted have thrown their hats into the ring, I thought I should rule myself out. Just to avoid any confusion.
It is not so much I am intimidated by the quality of the opposition. In fact, I rather subscribe to the views of my fellow retired Hooker, Brian Moore, with regard to their credentials. (I am not going to put a link here as Pitbull’s views are extremely partial, X certificate and, as my daughter has been telling me all week, I have to keep it PG. So, you will just have to look him up on Twitter for yourselves).
No, there is the rather more prosaic, if not inconsiderable matter that I am not, in fact, a Conservative Member of Parliament. I suppose I could have had a late run at it as an independent in Peterborough and got in that way. But that would have involved form filling, attending hustings and the like and, to be honest, I had some grouting that needed attention that night. I have also only ever been to Peterborough twice, and on the last occasion my behavior at Rockabilly night in the Pizza Parlour was perhaps not befitting one seeking elected public office. It was not as if I was brawling or tearing the place up or anything, I just got a bit over excited as I tend to when I hear quality, live, old time Rock n’ Roll. Pagan Gould take a bow.
Furthermore, and it may, or may not surprise you, I am not a member of the Conservative Party, or any other for that matter. I have a long-held view that possessing declarable political affiliations is not necessarily helpful for one in my line of business. I also concluded some time ago that our two party, adversarial system of politics is no way to run a railroad. Events, it seems, may be proving me right. Some will tell you that majority government is good government, because it is strong government. Usually those in government at the time. I heard David Cameron say it once, but not until after, to the astonishment of absolutely everybody, not least himself, he somehow returned a majority in 2015. That was when Labour went with the wrong Miliband and support for the LibDems evaporated. The two events were far more closely related than many have acknowledged.
Few of our neighbours are so wedded to first past the post democracy. They seem to be capable of reaching, and governing by, consensus. Dare I suggest that this may have been a factor in recent negotiations. Speaking of negotiations, the contenders in the aforementioned contest have all been talking a good game. What they are not going to do to negotiators in Brussels and how they will walk away with no deal. But talk is not just cheap, it is worthless. You can say whatever you want and promise whatever you want until you are afforded a degree of authority and the associated responsibility and accountability. One of the contestants is about to find out, as many of you have and many more of you will, that being the boss is not as easy as the better ones make it look. I wonder if, as they practiced their tough talk whilst watching the 75th anniversary commemorations of D-Day yesterday morning, they appreciated the irony.
They can say they will walk away deal-less as much as they like, but it is nonsense. No PM will drive us over the Brexit cliff. They are too worried about the effect it will have on their legacies, the one thing that our politicians seem to really care about. They are also worried about the impact it is likely to have on their Party (see below). FLL’s Act which prevented us leaving with no deal has expired, but others will come up with something. Speaker Bercow remains in situ. Parliament will find a way.
And just when you thought that this increasingly ludicrous looking leadership contest could not get any more ludicrous, it just did. The Conservative Party decided to change the rules around the election of its leader. After the game had started. This is precisely the strategy they expressly rejected as being unfair not a month ago, when they might have been able to prevent the PM suffering further, unnecessary punishment. In the end, as you know, she was handed a bottle of whisky and a revolver. This time they are scared. They know that holding this recklessly self-indulgent contest, at this time, could well see them obliterated at the ballot box in 2022 (see above). It is one of the reasons why we will not see a General Election before then. Others are that Labour are no more keen to go to the country early, and Farage’s mob are topping the polls.
But the rule change is having an effect. Candidates are dropping out, one mumbling that he is being realistic about his chances. This, just days after he had put himself forward. It does rather beg the obvious question does it not? Actually, I think it is quite reasonable to enter a race which you have no realistic changes of winning. Providing you do it in a deep-sea diver’s costume and raise a few quid for the local dog’s home along the way. But these people are in the mix to be our next Prime Minister. Actually, I am a bit miffed that they are now down to just 11. You know how I like my alliteration. I was keen to write about the Desperate Dozen, the Deranged Dozen, the Deluded Dozen or similar, but they will all have to go back in the locker.
So, who do you fancy for the top job next then? Jeremy Hunt looked a good buy to me at 12s the other day. They are not all raging no dealers. Sam Gyimah (do not worry if you have never heard of him) is a second referendum man, and Michael Gove is talking about further extensions beyond 31st October. Everyone is saying that Boris is the front runner, but you know I do not believe that, and maintain that he will not make the final ballot. But lets go with it for a moment. He has had an endorsement from none other than Donald J Trump. I wonder how BoJo feels about that. Soccer managers used to dread public votes of confidence from their Boards. It was a sure sign that the hammer was about to fall. The Blonde Buffoon could be in similar territory. I am not sure how keen on sport he actually is, beyond the odd game of wiff waff and the rather cosmetic jogging he seems to partake in when he believes the cameras have gathered outside. If he is a fan, and correspondingly superstitious, the omens have not been good this week. On Saturday, the boxer Anthony Joshua managed to lose a contest in which the odds were stacked 1-25 in his favour. On Monday the cloak of invincibility that surrounded England’s cricketers slipped somewhat, when Pakistan turned up and decided they wanted to play at Trent Bridge. It is not a good time to be the favourite.
By way of light relief, the Donald himself has been in town. There have been demonstrations, inflatable babies and the pavements in front of his motorcade have been cleared to prevent the propulsion of missiles. All in all, he is receiving a far more generous welcome to our shores than Steve Smith.
