ABHI Guest Blog with Paul Bristow: The Real Sign that a General Election is Coming
We have a new Government. And brand new is exactly what it is. It wasn’t a simple reshuffle. Seventeen of Mrs May's former senior Ministers have been axed or have stepped down. It is a new Government with a new purpose – to deliver Brexit by 31 October. This is a prime minister in a hurry.
Much has been said and written about an early General Election. Many commentators have pointed towards the perilous parliamentary arithmetic, the trouble he will have to get either a no-deal or a tweaked withdrawal agreement through Parliament, or the enemies he may have created through this reshuffle, as reasons why an election may be unavoidable.
But there is another change that points to Boris Johnson preparing for an election – the appointment of the Vote Leave Campaign Director Dominic Cummings as the PM’s Special Advisor (SPAD). As well as bringing in people like Sir Edward Lister, his Chief of Staff when he was Mayor of London, he is also putting the Vote Leave band back together. The election strategist Lynton Crosby, who helped with his leadership election, is also back on the books. Number 10 is (almost Trump like) being put on permanent election footing. Policy and Brexit will now be framed as a choice for the electorate between the two main political parties.
Cummings is a disrupter and campaigner. He will have enormous power and influence across Government and it has been announced that all other SPADS (whichever Minister they advise) will report directly to Cummings. Not only do all Ministers have to sign up to collective responsibility and a pledge to keep no-deal on the table. All advisors also have to sign up to control from the centre. Boris is determined not to suffer the same fate as the last PM who was undermined – and openly defied – by her own Cabinet. This will be a centralised Government with message and policy coming from the centre.
What does this mean for health policy? Matt Hancock remains the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, and the roll out of the £20 billion investment for the NHS will remain the priority. Indeed, Boris has already talked about starting with 20 new hospital upgrades. Could marginal constituencies and/or Labour Leave constituencies in the north of England be the first to benefit? Capital investment in health services would be the most evident example that a ‘Leave’ vote in 2016 did in fact lead to an extra £350 million plus investment into the NHS. A promise fulfilled. Could health therefore be the first area where the influence of Cummings and the Vote Leave Team in Downing Street is felt?
In his speech outside Downing Street, Boris also put life sciences first in a list of exciting, hi-tech industries in which the UK is strong. This prominence of life sciences should give our industry some confidence at a time when the Chancellor’s options for spending remain limited until our departure from the EU is confirmed.
Finally, something for the health technology industry to think about? The new Prime Minister has also said that a priority should be “ensuring the money for the NHS really does get to the front line”. It remains vital for all of us in this industry that another good way for the new Government to show that the extra money is making a difference is a focus on outcomes. And that the device industry, a focus on rolling out new disruptive pathways, and investment in value based healthcare is well placed to help the Government meet their objectives.
Paul Bristow is the Managing Director of PB Consulting: a specialist public affairs and consultancy service.