ABHI Brexit Update: The EU Olive Branch
Two and a half years ago, our then Prime Minster, David Cameron, was frantically shuttling across Europe. An unexpected victory in the 2015 general election had forced Cameron to progress a Referendum that he never thought he would actually have to hold. And he was getting nervous about the outcome. An increase in Euroscepticism across the country had convinced Cameron that he needed an olive branch from Europe. With it, he believed that he could carry the vote. He also felt that he would have allies. Europe, he reckoned, was no more keen for Britain to leave the EU than he was himself. The icy blast from economic disruption would be felt as keenly in 27 other capital cities as it would be in London. As well as individual leaders, the key actors to be convinced were the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk. Whilst not unsympathetic to his predicament, Cameron’s request presented a dilemma for the two men. Why should the UK be a special case, and what right did it have to come with demands? Also, if sweeties were to be handed out, what then would stop every other country turning up wanting to renegotiate the terms of its own membership?
In the end, after some very hard work and some very, very late nights, a compromise was reached. Europe agreed what, under the circumstances, it considered to be very significant concessions. Cameron returned to London, and Brussels looked on aghast as he was widely pilloried. The read-out was that Cameron had failed to gain anything worth having, and had done a poor job in making the argument that a better deal for the UK was a better deal for the EU. The rest, as they say, is history.
This week, our Prime Minister, Theresa May, has been frantically shuttling across Europe. She has a Withdrawal Agreement to get ratified by her Parliament and is convinced that she needs an olive branch from Europe. With it, she believes she can carry the vote. As well as individual leaders, the key actors to be convinced are the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk. You can fill the rest of it in yourselves.
The situation helps explain the frustration in Europe. The belief that whatever is offered to the UK, it will never be enough. It might also explain the strong words Tusk used this week, although what interested me most was the level of premeditation and the post-statement choreography. It remains to be seen what the long-term fallout will be.
Actually, May’s mission is somewhat less hopeless than Cameron’s was. He went looking for concessions on the movement of people, one of the key principles of the Union. In the end, he got something on welfare rights, but it was a big deal in Brussels. May is only looking for some words on the Irish backstop, having probably accepted that the Withdrawal Agreement itself will not be open to change. The form of words could come as part of the outline political declaration, the document that starts to lay out plans for relationships post-Brexit. Many commentators believe that the PM does not actually need that much to be able to get a majority, but she needs something.
And there might be support from some unusual places. Jeremy Corbyn has written to the PM setting out the conditions by which he could support her deal. One fundamental is that the UK should permanently remain the customs union. I explored this with you quite some time ago. It is one of the very basic facts of the situation that, without a customs union there is a hard border in Ireland. With a customs union the problem goes away, and it is certainly a more realistic option than the solutions which advocate using as yet non-existent technology. But, for the Brexiteers, it is not Brexit.
Corbyn’s approach has created waves amongst his own Party. It is a change of direction of Theresa May proportions. Remember, Labour’s official policy line up to now, has been to press for a second referendum if they cannot force a general election. Suddenly, he has offered a way, however unlikely, for the PM to get her deal through Parliament. The prospect of having the deal passed by support from the Labour front benches has also got Tory leavers all worked up. There now seem to be seismic divisions opening up in both main Parties, and resignations are likely to start coming in thick and fast.
For now, Mrs. May continues to seek that olive branch and Brussels continues to say it cannot be the one she wants. So, we are actually a little further away from any kind of resolution than we were this time last week. It is unlikely now that any meaningful vote will happen next week, prepare for that to happen at the end of the month, if not early next. I do not have to point out to you that it is all getting very late in the day.
Meanwhile, preparations are being stepped up in the NHS. A national “operational response centre” has gone live to deal with any fallout from a no-deal Brexit, while local NHS providers will be subject to new data collections to monitor their preparations.
In a letter sent to all Trusts, Keith Willett, NHS England’s EU exit strategic commander, said: “The Department is establishing a national operational response centre (ORC) which includes NHS England, NHS Improvement and Public Health England. This will lead on responding to any disruption to the delivery of health and care services in England, that may be caused or affected by EU exit.”
The letter said seven additional regional coordination centres would also be set up across England. Routine reporting across health will take the form of national data collections, as well as regional information gathering, and be managed by regional EU exit leads with the EU exit [senior responsible officer] from each NHS organisation.
The routine of regular reporting will remain under review, but it is anticipated to run for some months, with coordination centres remaining operational for up to six to 12 months post-EU exit.
More advice for manufactures wishing to take advantage of some of the additional freight capacity is expected soon. Once again, we would urge all ABHI Members to fully engage in the data collection exercises being undertaken by our colleagues in the DHSC. It is also a great reason to sign up to next Friday’s Brexit workshop, the first in a series we will be holding to help you prepare.
And finally. My favourite analogy this week came courtesy of the former Lib-Dem leader, Tim Farron. Remember him? Having already described Monday’s summit between backbench Tory MPs and senior Ministers as a “preposterous waste of time,” Farron went on to liken it to the committee of a cryogenics centre discussing what the customers will have for lunch after they had been brought back to life. Ouch. I would very much liked to have heard the riposte from the 1922, but none was reported, and that might be for the best. Mind you, I think he needs to be a bit careful. You may recall that the otherwise admirable Cumbrian has some pretty deeply held beliefs of his own that some of us find a bit wacky. One of the reasons he is no longer leader of the Lib-Dems is because of some of the more extreme views he has espoused in the name of his faith. I wonder what special place awaits him. Ah, yes, that is right, the Lords.
